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Property Crime Trends in Wartburg, Tennessee: A Study of Decline Amidst Population Loss
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Wartburg, located in Tennessee, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, ranging from a high of 30 in 2012 to a low of 2 in 2017. The overall trend shows a decrease of 17.65% in property crimes from 2010 to 2022. During this same period, the population declined by 29.47%, from 3,410 in 2010 to 2,405 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have been volatile. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries reported, which decreased to 1 in 2022, representing a 75% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.17 in 2010 to 0.42 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglaries remained relatively low, ranging from 0% to 0.05% over the years. This suggests that while burglary has decreased overall, it remains a persistent issue, albeit on a small scale relative to state figures.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a downward trend. In 2010, there were 13 reported cases, which decreased to 11 in 2022, a 15.38% reduction. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 people actually increased slightly from 3.81 in 2010 to 4.57 in 2022, due to the population decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts remained consistently low at around 0.01%. This indicates that while larceny theft has decreased in absolute numbers, it has become more prevalent relative to the shrinking population.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been inconsistent. There were no reported cases in 2010, but 2 cases were reported in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 in 2010 to 0.83 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0% and 0.02%. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft is not a major issue, it has seen a slight increase in recent years.
Arson cases have been non-existent in the city throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022, with no reported cases and no contribution to state arson figures. This indicates that arson is not a significant concern for the local community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 3,025 per square mile in 2010 to 2,133 in 2022, property crime rates per capita showed some increase. This could suggest that the reduction in population has not been accompanied by a proportional decrease in crime.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates may stabilize or slightly decrease if current population trends continue. The total number of property crimes is estimated to be around 10-12 annually, with larceny theft remaining the predominant type of property crime.
In summary, Wartburg has experienced a general decrease in absolute numbers of property crimes from 2010 to 2022, but when adjusted for population decline, some crime rates per capita have increased. Larceny theft remains the most significant property crime issue, while burglary has shown substantial improvement. The absence of arson cases is a positive aspect of the city's crime profile. These trends, set against the backdrop of population decline, suggest a complex interplay between demographic changes and crime patterns in this small Tennessee city.
