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Property Crime Trends in Wardell, Missouri: A Small Town's Declining Yet Improving Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Wardell, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. Over the years from 2010 to 2016, the city experienced fluctuations in property crime incidents, with a total of 13 reported cases during this period. The population of Wardell has seen a decline, dropping from 546 in 2010 to 457 in 2022, representing a 16.3% decrease over 12 years.
Burglary trends in the city show significant variation. In 2010 and 2011, there were no reported burglaries. However, 2012 saw a spike with 4 burglaries, accounting for 0.01% of the state's total. This translates to a rate of 7.69 burglaries per 1,000 residents. The following years saw a decrease, with 2 burglaries in 2013 and 1 each in 2014 and 2016. Despite the population decline, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively high in 2013 at 3.42, dropping to 1.87 in 2014 and 1.85 in 2016. This trend suggests an overall improvement in burglary prevention, despite occasional spikes.
Larceny-theft incidents in the city have been relatively low and sporadic. There were 2 cases in 2010, 1 each in 2012 and 2013, and no reported cases in 2011, 2014, and 2016. The highest rate was observed in 2010 with 3.66 incidents per 1,000 residents. The lack of consistent data makes it challenging to establish a clear trend, but the overall low numbers suggest that larceny-theft is not a persistent issue in the city.
Motor vehicle theft has been rare in Wardell. The only reported incident occurred in 2016, with 1 case representing 0.01% of the state's total. This translates to a rate of 1.85 per 1,000 residents for that year. The infrequency of motor vehicle theft incidents indicates that it is not a significant concern for the city.
Arson cases have been extremely rare, with only one reported incident in 2014. This single case accounted for 0.12% of the state's total arson cases that year, resulting in a rate of 1.87 incidents per 1,000 residents. The isolated nature of this incident suggests that arson is not a recurring problem in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's median income increased from $33,811 in 2013 to $41,823 in 2022, a 23.7% rise. Concurrently, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units grew from 70% in 2013 to 72% in 2022. These positive economic indicators coincide with a general decrease in property crime incidents, suggesting a potential correlation between improved economic conditions and reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend. Based on historical data and current socioeconomic indicators, it's projected that burglary rates will likely stabilize at around 1-2 incidents per year, while larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft may remain sporadic with 0-1 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain extremely rare or non-existent.
In summary, Wardell has shown a generally improving trend in property crime rates despite its declining population. The most significant changes have been observed in burglary rates, which have decreased over time. The city's rising median income and homeownership rates appear to correlate with these positive trends in crime reduction. While occasional spikes in certain crime categories have occurred, the overall trajectory suggests a safer community environment. As Wardell continues to navigate demographic and economic changes, maintaining vigilance and community engagement will be crucial in sustaining these positive trends in property crime reduction.
