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Property Crime Trends in Ward, Arkansas: A Decade of Resilience Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Ward, located in Arkansas, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside significant population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 0.78%, rising from 128 to 129 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew substantially by 27.7%, from 7,797 to 9,958 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a overall decline, despite some fluctuations. In 2010, there were 38 burglaries, which peaked at 71 in 2011 before decreasing to 35 in 2022, representing a 7.9% decrease over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.87 in 2010 to 3.51 in 2022, a 27.9% decrease. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.17% in 2010 to 0.34% in 2022, suggesting that while local burglary rates declined, they did so at a slower pace than the state average.
Larceny theft incidents in the city showed a slight decrease over time. In 2010, there were 88 reported cases, which declined to 87 in 2022, a 1.1% decrease. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents dropped more significantly from 11.29 in 2010 to 8.74 in 2022, a 22.6% decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny theft incidents increased from 0.17% in 2010 to 0.20% in 2022, indicating that the local trend was slightly better than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city saw an increase over the period. From 2 incidents in 2010, it rose to 7 in 2022, a 250% increase. However, when adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.26 in 2010 to 0.70 in 2022, a 169% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.05% to 0.13%, suggesting a faster increase compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic, with many years reporting zero incidents. The city recorded 1 case in 2019, which increased to 3 in 2020, before dropping back to 1 in 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 residents in 2022 was 0.10. The city's contribution to state arson cases fluctuated, reaching 0.31% in 2022.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $53,047 in 2013 to $62,073 in 2022, the overall property crime rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 14.9 to 12.95. Additionally, there's a weak correlation between the declining percentage of owner-occupied housing (from 78% in 2013 to 70% in 2022) and the slight increase in certain property crimes, particularly motor vehicle theft.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now), we anticipate a potential stabilization in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to continue their gradual decline, while larceny theft may plateau. Motor vehicle theft could see a slight increase if current trends persist. Arson cases are likely to remain low but unpredictable due to their sporadic nature.
In summary, Ward has experienced a complex evolution in property crime trends against the backdrop of significant population growth. While some categories like burglary and larceny theft have shown improvements when adjusted for population, others like motor vehicle theft have increased. The city's changing demographics and economic factors appear to have influenced these trends, highlighting the need for targeted crime prevention strategies as Ward continues to grow and evolve.
