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Violent Crime Trends in Mansfield, Arkansas: A Study of Declining Incidents Amid Population Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Mansfield, Arkansas, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2020 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city decreased by 50%, from 8 to 4 incidents. This significant reduction occurred while the population declined by 13.7%, from 2,642 in 2020 to 2,279 in 2022. This juxtaposition of decreasing crime rates against a backdrop of population decline offers a unique perspective on the city's safety dynamics.
In examining murder trends, the data shows a consistent absence of such incidents from 2020 to 2022. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained at zero throughout this period, indicating a stable and positive safety aspect for the community. The percentage of state crime for murder also stayed at 0% during these years, suggesting that the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city followed a similar pattern to murder, with no reported cases from 2020 to 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state crime for rape both remained at zero. This consistency in the absence of reported rapes over the three-year period is a positive indicator for community safety, particularly given the population changes during this time.
Robbery trends mirrored those of murder and rape, with no reported incidents from 2020 to 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people and the city's contribution to state robbery statistics remained at zero throughout this period. This absence of robberies, even as the population fluctuated, suggests a consistently low level of property-related violent crime in the city.
Aggravated assault showed the most variation among violent crimes in the city. In 2020, there were 8 reported cases, which decreased to 1 in 2021, and then increased to 4 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 3.03 in 2020 to 0.40 in 2021, and then to 1.76 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics also varied, from 0.07% in 2020 to 0.01% in 2021, and 0.03% in 2022. This fluctuation suggests that while aggravated assault remains the primary concern for violent crime in the city, its occurrence is relatively low and variable.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density decreased from 1,144 per square mile in 2020 to 987 in 2022, violent crime rates also generally declined, with some fluctuation. Median rent showed an increasing trend from $646 in 2020 to $759 in 2022, which coincided with the overall decrease in violent crime, suggesting a possible positive correlation between higher rents and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the limited data available, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see a slight increase in aggravated assaults to approximately 5-6 incidents annually, assuming current trends continue. However, other violent crime categories are expected to remain at or near zero, maintaining the city's overall low violent crime profile.
In summary, Mansfield has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction from 2020 to 2022, with aggravated assault being the primary area of concern. The absence of murders, rapes, and robberies during this period, coupled with the overall decrease in violent crime despite population fluctuations, paints a picture of a relatively safe community. These trends, if maintained, suggest a promising outlook for public safety in Mansfield over the coming years.
