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Property Crime Trends in Vandalia, Ohio: A Decade of Changing Dynamics
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Vandalia, located in Ohio, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 422 to 250, representing a 40.8% reduction. During this same period, the population remained relatively stable, growing slightly from 17,913 in 2010 to 18,085 in 2021, an increase of just 1%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a consistent downward trend. In 2010, there were 102 burglaries, which decreased to 39 by 2021, marking a 61.8% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 5.69 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.16 per 1,000 in 2021. Interestingly, despite this decrease in raw numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.18% in 2021. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased in the city, they may have decreased at a slower rate compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a significant decline. In 2010, there were 294 reported cases, which fell to 171 in 2021, a 41.8% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 16.41 in 2010 to 9.46 in 2021. The city's share of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, moving from 0.19% in 2010 to 0.19% in 2021, indicating that the reduction in larceny-theft aligns closely with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. There were 26 cases in 2010, which increased to 40 in 2021, a 53.8% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.45 in 2010 to 2.21 in 2021. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased substantially from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.25% in 2021, suggesting that this type of crime has become relatively more prevalent in the city compared to state averages.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated but remained low overall. There were 3 cases in 2010 and 2021, with some variation in between years. The rate per 1,000 residents remained stable at about 0.17. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased significantly from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.39% in 2021, indicating that arson has become a relatively larger issue in the city compared to state trends.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $55,892 in 2013 to $70,812 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests a potential negative correlation between income levels and property crime. Additionally, the slight decrease in homeownership rates from 64% in 2013 to 61% in 2022 coincided with the overall reduction in property crimes, particularly burglaries.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crimes. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to decrease further, albeit at a slower rate. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize or slightly increase if current trends persist. Arson cases are likely to remain low but could see occasional spikes due to their low base rate.
In summary, Vandalia has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes over the past decade, with notable decreases in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts and the city's growing share of state arson cases warrant attention. The correlation between rising median incomes and declining property crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could contribute to further reductions in property crime. These trends paint a picture of a city that has made substantial progress in combating property crime but still faces specific challenges in certain areas.
