Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 17 reported cases, which increased to 39 in 2022, a 129.4% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 1.30 in 2010 to 3.11 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased significantly from 0.16% to 0.22%, suggesting that this crime type has become a growing concern relative to other areas in Tennessee.

Arson incidents in the city have fluctuated but generally remained low. In 2010, there were 7 reported arsons, which decreased to 1 in 2022, an 85.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.54 in 2010 to 0.08 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons decreased from 0.92% to 0.19%, indicating a substantial improvement in this area compared to the rest of Tennessee.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,076 per square mile in 2010 to 1,036 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests that lower population density may be associated with reduced property crime incidence. Additionally, the median income increased from $32,857 in 2013 to $34,232 in 2022, which coincided with the general downward trend in property crimes, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall declining trend in property crimes. Based on historical data, we might expect to see burglary and larceny-theft rates continue to decrease, albeit at a slower pace. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to pose a challenge, with rates potentially stabilizing or slightly increasing. Arson incidents are expected to remain low but may fluctuate due to their relatively rare occurrence.

In summary, Union City has experienced a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, with significant reductions in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents an area of concern that may require focused attention from law enforcement and community leaders. The city's changing demographics and economic conditions appear to have played a role in these crime trends, highlighting the complex interplay between socioeconomic factors and criminal activity in shaping the safety and security of this Tennessee community.