Robbery trends in the city have been relatively low and sporadic. There were no robberies reported in 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2019. The highest number of robberies (3) occurred in 2013, with other years seeing either 1 or 2 incidents. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.44 in 2013 and was 0 in 2022. The percentage of state robberies attributable to Caryville ranged from 0% to 0.06%, with the highest percentage seen in 2020.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Caryville. The number of aggravated assaults ranged from a low of 2 in 2019 to a high of 12 in 2010, with 11 incidents reported in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 0.30 in 2019 to 1.82 in 2010, settling at 1.48 per 1,000 in 2022. The percentage of state aggravated assaults attributable to Caryville ranged from 0.01% to 0.06%, with the highest percentage occurring in 2010.

When examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,185 per square mile in 2010 to 1,340 per square mile in 2022, the overall violent crime rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.82 in 2010 to 1.61 in 2022. This suggests that the growth in population has not led to a proportional increase in violent crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the historical data and current trends, we might expect the murder rate to remain at or very close to zero, given the consistent history. Rape incidents may continue to fluctuate between 0-2 cases per year, with an average around 1 annually. Robbery rates are likely to remain low, potentially ranging from 0-2 incidents per year. Aggravated assaults may stabilize around 8-10 incidents per year, assuming current trends continue.

In summary, Caryville has maintained relatively stable violent crime rates despite population growth. The most significant violent crime concern remains aggravated assault, while other violent crimes occur infrequently. The inverse relationship between population density and crime rates suggests that the city's growth has not negatively impacted public safety. Moving forward, local law enforcement and community leaders should focus on maintaining the low crime rates, particularly in addressing the more prevalent issue of aggravated assaults.