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Property Crime Trends in Troy, Montana: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Troy, Montana, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. With a population of 1,059 in 2022, this small city has experienced significant fluctuations in both its population and crime rates. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 62.5%, from 40 to 15 incidents. During the same period, the population declined by 10.6%, from 1,185 to 1,059 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable volatility. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries, which peaked at 9 in 2014, before decreasing to 2 in 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.69 in 2010 to 8.06 in 2014, then declined to 1.89 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.48% in 2014 before settling at 0.13% in 2022. This suggests that while burglary remains a concern, its relative impact on the state level has diminished.
Larceny-theft has been the most prevalent property crime in the city. In 2010, there were 36 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 13 in 2022, a 63.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 30.38 in 2010 to 12.28 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft decreased from 0.31% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2022, indicating a significant improvement relative to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been relatively low and inconsistent. The highest number recorded was 2 incidents in 2010 and 2017, with several years reporting zero incidents, including 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 1.69 in 2010 and has since declined. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has remained minimal, never exceeding 0.25% and dropping to 0% in recent years.
Arson incidents have been rare, with only two reported cases in the entire period - one each in 2011 and 2014. This translates to rates of 0.85 and 0.89 per 1,000 residents in those years, respectively. The city's contribution to state arson cases was notably high in these instances at 1.22% and 1.52%, but has been zero in all other years.
A strong correlation exists between property crime trends and median income. As the median income increased from $22,007 in 2013 to $31,404 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 12 to 15 during the same period. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Troy could see a further reduction in total property crimes to approximately 10-12 incidents annually. This projection assumes continued improvements in economic conditions and stable population trends.
In summary, Troy has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes, with notable improvements in larceny-theft and burglary rates. The city's contribution to state-level property crimes has generally decreased, indicating positive local trends relative to Montana as a whole. The correlation between rising median income and declining crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further enhance public safety in Troy.
