Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown a more modest decrease. From 5 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 3 in 2022, a 40% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 0.96 in 2010 to 0.61 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated but ultimately decreased from 0.63% to 0.19%. This relatively stable trend in motor vehicle thefts, compared to other property crimes, may suggest persistent challenges in this area.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with years of no reported incidents interspersed with occasional occurrences. In 2010 and 2022, there was one reported case of arson each year. The city's contribution to state arson cases increased from 0% in 2010 to 1.12% in 2022, despite the same number of incidents, possibly indicating a decrease in arson cases statewide.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes coincides with a slight increase in homeownership rates, from 60% in 2013 to 67% in 2022. This could suggest that higher homeownership rates contribute to community stability and reduced property crime. Additionally, the racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently around 90-93% throughout the period, indicating that racial demographics have not significantly influenced property crime trends in this case.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the current trends, we can expect burglaries to stabilize at around 3-5 incidents per year, larceny-theft cases to continue decreasing, potentially reaching 15-20 incidents annually, motor vehicle thefts to remain relatively stable at 2-4 incidents per year, and arson cases to remain sporadic, with 0-1 incidents in most years.

In summary, Glendive has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, with particularly notable decreases in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend, occurring alongside stable racial demographics and increasing homeownership rates, suggests effective crime prevention strategies and improved community engagement. As the city moves forward, maintaining these low crime rates while addressing persistent challenges in areas like motor vehicle theft will be crucial for ensuring the continued safety and well-being of its residents.