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Property Crime Trends in Joliet, Montana: A Small Town's Fluctuating Statistics
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Joliet, located in Montana, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2014, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 7 in 2010, dropping to 0 in 2012, rising to 6 in 2013, and then decreasing to 2 in 2014. This represents a 71.43% decrease over the period. Concurrently, the population experienced a slight increase from 679 in 2010 to 677 in 2014, a growth of 0.29%.
Burglary trends in the city show significant variability. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries, representing 0.11% of the state's total. This dropped to 0 in 2012, rose to 1 in 2013 (0.04% of state total), and returned to 0 in 2014. When considering population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.94 in 2010 to 0 in 2014. This volatility in burglary rates, coupled with the declining percentage of state totals, suggests an overall improvement in burglary prevention within the city relative to the state.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed fluctuation. Starting with 2 cases in 2010 (0.02% of state total), it dropped to 0 in 2012, spiked to 4 in 2013 (0.03% of state total), and then decreased to 2 in 2014 (0.01% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents went from 2.94 in 2010 to 2.95 in 2014, showing a slight increase. Despite the fluctuations, the city's contribution to state larceny-theft totals remained relatively low, indicating that this type of crime is not a major concern compared to other areas in Montana.
Motor vehicle theft demonstrated a downward trend. There were 3 cases in 2010 (0.38% of state total), dropping to 0 in 2012, rising slightly to 1 in 2013 (0.09% of state total), and returning to 0 in 2014. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 4.42 in 2010 to 0 in 2014. This significant decrease, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state totals, suggests improved vehicle security or more effective law enforcement strategies in this area.
Arson cases remained consistently at 0 throughout the reported years, representing 0% of the state's total. This absence of arson cases indicates that it is not a significant concern for the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $34,621 in 2013 to $34,714 in 2014, total property crimes decreased from 6 to 2. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 83% in 2013 to 88% in 2014, coinciding with the decrease in property crimes. This suggests that higher homeownership rates and increased median income may contribute to lower property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, Joliet may experience a further decrease in overall property crime rates. The model suggests that burglary and motor vehicle theft rates could remain at or near zero, while larceny-theft might stabilize around 1-2 cases per year. However, given the small population and the volatility in the historical data, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously.
In summary, Joliet has shown an overall decreasing trend in property crimes from 2010 to 2014, with significant reductions in burglary and motor vehicle theft. The city's contribution to state crime totals has generally decreased across all categories. The correlation between rising median income, increased homeownership, and declining crime rates suggests that economic factors may play a role in crime reduction. These trends, if continued, could position the city as a model for small-town crime management in Montana.
