Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Town and Country, Missouri: A Wealthy City's Unexpected Rise in Criminal Activity
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Town and Country, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 73.15%, from 108 to 187 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 10.31%, from 14,526 to 16,024 residents, indicating that crime rates outpaced population growth significantly.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable fluctuation over the years. In 2010, there were 10 burglaries, which peaked at 28 in 2011 before declining to 15 in 2022. This represents a 50% increase over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.69 in 2010 to 0.94 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries rose from 0.03% to 0.11% during this time, suggesting a growing concentration of burglary incidents relative to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, saw a significant increase of 66.67% from 93 incidents in 2010 to 155 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 6.40 to 9.67 over this period. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases increased from 0.08% to 0.20%, indicating a faster growth rate compared to the state average. This trend suggests that the city is facing growing challenges in combating petty theft and shoplifting.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited a dramatic rise, increasing from 5 incidents in 2010 to 17 in 2022, a 240% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents jumped from 0.34 to 1.06. More notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.04% to 0.07%, implying that this crime type is becoming a more significant issue for the local community relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only one reported incident in 2017. Given the scarcity of data, it's difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends or their impact on the community.
Examining correlations between property crime and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,264 per square mile in 2010 to 1,394 in 2022, property crime rates also rose, suggesting a potential link between urbanization and criminal activity. However, the relationship with median income is less clear, as income levels remained relatively stable (around $160,000) while crime rates fluctuated.
The racial composition of the city has remained predominantly white (83% in 2022), with a slight increase in Asian residents (from 9% in 2014 to 10% in 2022). This stability in racial demographics suggests that changes in property crime rates are likely influenced by factors other than racial composition.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued upward trajectory. Based on historical data, we can estimate that total property crimes could reach approximately 240-250 incidents by 2029, representing a potential increase of 28-34% from 2022 levels. This projection assumes that current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively constant.
In summary, Town and Country has experienced a significant increase in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. Larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft have shown the most substantial increases, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of state totals. These trends, coupled with the projected increase in property crimes, underscore the need for targeted law enforcement strategies and community-based initiatives to address the growing challenges in maintaining public safety and protecting property in this Missouri city.
