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Property Crime Plummets as Moscow Mills, Missouri Grows: A Decade of Positive Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Moscow Mills, located in Missouri, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates and population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 83.58%, from 67 to 11 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 62.94%, from 4,762 to 7,759 residents, presenting an interesting contrast between crime reduction and population expansion.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 9 burglaries reported, which decreased to just 1 in 2022, representing an 88.89% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.89 in 2010 to 0.13 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022. This significant reduction in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and relative to the state, suggests improved security measures or community policing efforts.
Larceny-theft incidents have also seen a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 57 reported cases, which dropped to 9 in 2022, marking an 84.21% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 11.97 in 2010 to 1.16 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases fell from 0.05% to 0.01% during this period. This considerable decline in larceny-theft, despite population growth, indicates effective crime prevention strategies or improved community awareness.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low, with some fluctuations. There was 1 reported case in 2010, which remained the same in 2022. However, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.21 in 2010 to 0.13 in 2022 due to population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.01% to 0.00% (rounded down from a very small percentage). The stability in motor vehicle theft numbers, despite population growth, suggests effective deterrence measures or community vigilance.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only 2 reported cases in 2010 and none since 2016. This represents a 100% decrease in arson incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.42 in 2010 to 0 in recent years. The city's contribution to state arson cases dropped from 0.19% in 2010 to 0% in 2022. The elimination of arson cases is a positive development, indicating effective fire prevention and safety measures.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,511 per square mile in 2010 to 2,463 in 2022, property crime rates decreased significantly. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates. The median income grew from $63,279 in 2013 to $76,504 in 2022, coinciding with the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that property crime rates will continue to decrease over the next five years (until 2029). The total number of property crimes could potentially drop below 10 incidents annually, with burglary and motor vehicle theft rates approaching zero. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the most common property crime but at significantly lower levels than historical data.
In conclusion, Moscow Mills has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates despite substantial population growth. The significant reductions in burglary, larceny-theft, and the virtual elimination of arson cases highlight the effectiveness of local crime prevention strategies. These trends, coupled with increasing population density and rising median incomes, suggest a positive trajectory for community safety and economic development in the coming years.
