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Property Crime Trends in Tignall, Georgia: A Five-Year Decline to Zero
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Tignall, located in Georgia, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2014, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, starting at 5 in 2010, peaking at 23 in 2011, and then declining to 0 by 2014. This represents a 100% decrease in property crimes over the five-year period. During the same timeframe, the population decreased from 2,002 in 2010 to 1,631 in 2014, a decline of about 18.5%.
Burglary rates in the city showed considerable volatility. In 2010, there was 1 burglary reported, which spiked to 14 in 2011, representing 0.04% of the state's burglaries that year. This surge equates to about 7.9 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2011, a significant increase from 0.5 per 1,000 in 2010. However, the trend reversed sharply thereafter, with burglaries dropping to 3 in 2012 (0.01% of state total), and then to 0 in 2013 and 2014. This dramatic reduction coincided with a decreasing population, suggesting that factors beyond population change influenced the burglary rate.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated variability. Starting at 4 cases in 2010, it more than doubled to 9 in 2011, accounting for 0.01% of the state's larceny-thefts. This translates to about 5.1 larceny-thefts per 1,000 residents in 2011, up from 2 per 1,000 in 2010. The numbers then decreased to 4 in 2012, 3 in 2013, and finally 0 in 2014. This downward trend occurred despite population fluctuations, indicating potential improvements in local crime prevention or reporting practices.
Motor vehicle theft and arson rates remained consistently at zero throughout the reported period from 2010 to 2014. This absence of incidents is noteworthy, especially considering the fluctuations in other property crime categories. It suggests that these specific types of property crimes were not significant issues for the community during this time frame.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As property crimes decreased to zero by 2014, the median income increased from $29,700 in 2013 to $32,600 in 2014, suggesting a potential inverse relationship between income levels and property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased slightly from 75% in 2013 to 77% in 2014, which could have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the limited and inconsistent data available. However, if the trend of zero reported property crimes continues as it did in 2014, it's possible that Tignall could maintain very low or zero property crime rates in the coming years. This projection should be viewed cautiously, as even small fluctuations in a town of this size can significantly impact crime statistics.
In summary, Tignall experienced a notable decline in property crimes from 2010 to 2014, with burglary and larceny-theft showing the most significant changes. The complete elimination of reported property crimes by 2014, coupled with increases in median income and home ownership rates, suggests a positive trend in community safety and economic stability. However, the small population size means that even minor changes in crime incidents can have a substantial impact on overall crime rates, necessitating ongoing vigilance and community engagement to maintain these favorable conditions.
