Robbery trends in Albany present a more complex picture. While the number of robberies decreased from 203 in 2010 to 98 in 2021, a 51.7% reduction, the rate per 1,000 residents only decreased by 43.8% due to the population decline. The city's contribution to state robbery cases increased slightly from 3.49% to 4.3% over this period, suggesting that while robberies decreased in Albany, they decreased at a slower rate compared to the state average.

Aggravated assault has seen the most dramatic increase among violent crimes in Albany. The number of cases surged from 480 in 2010 to 946 in 2021, a 97.1% increase. When adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents more than doubled from 6.08 to 14.09. The city's share of state aggravated assault cases rose from 4.27% to 7.42%, indicating that Albany has become a hotspot for this type of violent crime within Georgia.

There appears to be a strong correlation between the rise in violent crime and changes in population density. As the population density decreased from 1,434 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,233 in 2022, violent crime rates increased. This counterintuitive relationship suggests that factors beyond population density, such as economic conditions or law enforcement strategies, may be driving crime trends.

Additionally, there is a notable correlation between the increase in median rent and the rise in violent crime. Median rent rose from $648 in 2013 to $896 in 2022, a 38.3% increase. This could indicate growing economic pressures on residents, potentially contributing to increased crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029, Albany may see a further 15-20% increase in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue unchecked. This projection assumes no significant changes in socioeconomic factors or law enforcement strategies.

In summary, Albany has faced significant challenges with violent crime over the past decade, particularly in the areas of aggravated assault and rape. The disproportionate increase in crime rates compared to population changes suggests underlying issues beyond demographic shifts. The city's growing share of state crime statistics in several categories indicates that Albany is facing more acute crime challenges than many other parts of Georgia. Addressing these trends will likely require targeted interventions that consider the complex interplay of economic, social, and law enforcement factors unique to Albany's situation.