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Property Crime Trends in Thompson Falls, Montana: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Thompson Falls, located in Montana, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the years, alongside changes in its population. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes varied, with a peak of 44 incidents in 2016 and a low of 19 in 2021. Over this period, the population grew from 2,248 in 2010 to 2,210 in 2022, representing a slight overall decrease of 1.7%.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variation. In 2010, there were 5 burglaries, which increased to 7 in 2012, representing a 40% rise. However, by 2017, burglaries dropped to zero, before rising again to 5 in 2022. When examining burglaries per 1,000 people, the rate fluctuated from 2.22 in 2010 to a high of 3.37 in 2012, and then to 2.26 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also varied, peaking at 0.32% in 2012 and 2022, indicating that despite population changes, the city's contribution to state burglary figures remained relatively constant in these years.
Larceny theft trends show more stability but with some notable changes. In 2010, there were 16 incidents, which increased to a high of 36 in 2016, before decreasing to 16 again in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 7.12 in 2010 to 17.58 in 2016, then fell to 7.24 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny thefts peaked at 0.30% in 2018, indicating a temporary increase in the city's contribution to state figures during this period.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low, ranging from 1 to 4 incidents annually. The rate per 1,000 people varied from 0.44 in 2010 to a high of 2.12 in 2015, before settling at 0.90 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.28% in 2013 and 2015, suggesting periods where the city had a disproportionate number of these crimes relative to its population.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with most years reporting zero incidents. However, there were single cases reported in 2011, 2012, and 2014, and two cases in 2021. The rate per 1,000 people for arson peaked at 0.88 in 2021. The city's contribution to state arson figures was most significant in 2021 at 1.63%, indicating an unusual spike in this crime type for that year.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between property crime rates and population density. For instance, in 2016, when the population density was 1,284 per square mile, the city experienced its highest number of property crimes at 44. Conversely, in 2021, with a slightly higher density of 1,432, property crimes dropped to 19, suggesting other factors may influence crime rates more significantly than population density alone.
Predicting future trends based on historical data, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Thompson Falls may see a slight decrease in overall property crimes. Burglaries and motor vehicle thefts are likely to remain low, potentially averaging 2-3 incidents per year. Larceny theft, being the most common property crime, may stabilize around 20-25 incidents annually. Arson is expected to remain rare, with possibly one incident every few years.
In conclusion, Thompson Falls has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, with larceny theft being the most prevalent issue. Despite some year-to-year variations, the overall trend suggests a gradual decrease in property crimes, particularly in recent years. The city's contribution to state crime figures has remained relatively small, reflecting its size and rural nature. As the community moves forward, continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies may help maintain or further reduce property crime rates.
