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Property Crime Trends in Plains, Montana: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Plains, Montana, a small community nestled in the western part of the state, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased from 18 to 3, marking an 83.33% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 1,901 to 2,477, representing a 30.30% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 3 burglaries, which decreased to 0 by 2012. The rate fluctuated in subsequent years, peaking at 4 incidents in 2018 before dropping to 0 again in 2022. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.58 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also varied, reaching a high of 0.25% in 2018 before falling to 0% in 2022. This trend suggests an overall improvement in burglary prevention despite population growth.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 13 cases, which remained relatively stable until 2015. However, by 2022, this number had decreased to 3. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people dropped from 6.84 in 2010 to 1.21 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, indicating a significant improvement in this area relative to the state's overall figures.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low throughout the observed period. From 2 incidents in 2010, it fluctuated between 0 and 2 cases annually, ending at 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.05 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also decreased from 0.25% in 2010 to 0% in 2022, suggesting effective control of this crime type despite population growth.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only one incident reported in 2010, accounting for 1.82% of state arson cases that year. Since then, no arson cases have been reported, maintaining a 0% contribution to state arson figures from 2011 to 2022. This indicates a consistently low occurrence of arson in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density increased from 3,093 per square mile in 2010 to 4,030 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 18 to 3. This suggests that the growing community may have developed better crime prevention strategies or community cohesion over time.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, if current patterns continue, we can expect the total number of property crimes to remain low, potentially stabilizing around 2-4 incidents annually by 2029. This projection assumes continued population growth and maintenance of current crime prevention efforts.
In summary, Plains has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates across all categories over the past decade, despite significant population growth. The most striking developments include the complete elimination of burglaries and motor vehicle thefts by 2022, and a substantial reduction in larceny-theft incidents. These trends, coupled with the consistent absence of arson cases, paint a picture of a community that has effectively managed and reduced property crime risks. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
