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Property Crime Trends in Taylorsville, Kentucky: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Taylorsville, Kentucky, a small urban area of 0.94 square miles, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates alongside modest population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 20%, from 15 to 18 incidents, while the population grew by 2.85%, from 7,005 to 7,205 residents. This analysis will explore the trends in various property crime categories and their relationship to demographic changes in the city.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 3 burglaries, which peaked at 35 in 2017, before declining to 6 in 2022. This represents a 100% increase from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate increased from 0.43 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.83 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated dramatically, from 0.02% in 2010 to a high of 0.25% in 2017, settling at 0.12% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have increased overall, they remain a small fraction of state totals.
Larceny-theft incidents decreased by 16.67% from 12 in 2010 to 10 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people dropped slightly from 1.71 in 2010 to 1.39 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases doubled from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, indicating that while local incidents decreased, they became a larger portion of state totals. This trend suggests improved local prevention measures relative to state averages.
Motor vehicle theft showed an increase from 0 incidents in 2010 to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0 to 0.28. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0% to 0.05%, reflecting a growing concern in this category, albeit still representing a small fraction of state totals.
Arson cases remained rare, with only one incident reported in 2017 and 2021. The rate per 1,000 people for these years was 0.14 and 0.14 respectively. The city's contribution to state arson cases was significant in these years at 0.66% and 0.34%, highlighting how a single incident in a small city can notably impact state percentages.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $69,755 in 2013 to $75,580 in 2022, overall property crime incidents decreased. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing showed a slight negative correlation with property crime rates, suggesting that higher ownership rates may contribute to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029, Taylorsville may experience a slight increase in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 7-8 incidents annually, while larceny-theft may see a modest uptick to 12-14 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts could potentially increase to 3-4 incidents annually, reflecting the recent upward trend.
In summary, Taylorsville has shown resilience in managing property crime rates despite population growth. The most significant changes were observed in burglary rates, which saw substantial fluctuations but ultimately increased over the period. Larceny-theft, while decreasing overall, became a larger portion of state totals. Motor vehicle theft emerged as a growing concern, albeit still at low levels. These trends, coupled with demographic changes, suggest that Taylorsville is navigating the challenges of urbanization while maintaining relatively stable property crime rates.
