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Property Crime Trends in Staunton, Illinois: Fluctuations Amid Declining Population
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Staunton, Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2016, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, starting at 107 in 2010, dropping to 46 in 2013, and then rising to 65 in 2016. This represents a 39.25% decrease in property crimes over this period. During the same timeframe, the population decreased slightly from 5,959 in 2010 to 5,834 in 2016, a 2.1% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city showed notable volatility. In 2010, there were 15 burglaries, which sharply declined to 3 in 2013, before spiking to 25 in 2014, and then decreasing again to 11 in 2016. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 2.52 in 2010 to 0.5 in 2013, peaking at 4.21 in 2014, and settling at 1.89 in 2016. The city's contribution to state burglary figures varied from 0.03% in 2010 to a high of 0.07% in 2014, before decreasing to 0.03% in 2016. These fluctuations suggest periodic spikes in burglary activity rather than a consistent trend.
Larceny-theft trends showed a general decline over the period. From 89 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 43 in 2013, remained relatively stable at 42 in 2014, and then increased slightly to 52 in 2016. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 14.94 in 2010 to 8.91 in 2016. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained relatively stable at 0.03% for most of the observed years, with a slight increase to 0.05% in 2010. This overall decline in larceny-theft rates suggests improved property security or law enforcement effectiveness in this area.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained low throughout the period. There were 3 incidents in 2010, followed by zero reported cases in 2013, 2014, and 2015, before a slight increase to 2 cases in 2016. The rate per 1,000 residents correspondingly fluctuated from 0.5 in 2010 to 0 in the middle years, and then to 0.34 in 2016. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft figures was minimal, ranging from 0% to 0.01%. These low numbers indicate that motor vehicle theft is not a significant concern for the city.
Arson incidents were rare, with only one reported case in 2013 and another in 2015. The rate per 1,000 residents for these years was 0.17 and 0.17 respectively. Interestingly, despite the low number of incidents, the city's contribution to state arson figures was relatively high at 0.08% in both 2013 and 2015. This suggests that while arson is infrequent in the city, it represents a disproportionate share of the state's arson cases when it does occur.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. For instance, as median income rose from $55,188 in 2013 to $58,892 in 2015, property crimes decreased from 46 to 42. Conversely, when median income dropped to $50,587 in 2016, property crimes increased to 65. This suggests that economic factors may play a role in property crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates in the city may stabilize around 55-60 incidents per year, assuming current socioeconomic trends continue. This prediction takes into account the historical fluctuations and the gradual decline observed in the latter years of the data set.
In summary, Staunton has experienced a general decline in property crimes from 2010 to 2016, with notable fluctuations in specific categories like burglary. The city's contribution to state crime figures remains relatively low across most categories, with the exception of occasional spikes in burglary and arson. The inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates underscores the potential impact of economic factors on criminal activity. As the city moves forward, maintaining economic stability and continuing effective law enforcement strategies will be crucial in sustaining the overall downward trend in property crimes.
