Contrary to the declining trends in burglary and larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft showed an increase over the decade. In 2010, there were 15 reported incidents, which rose to 40 by 2020, a 166.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.53 in 2010 to 1.50 in 2020. Moreover, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose significantly from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.24% in 2020, suggesting a local trend that diverged from the state average.

Arson incidents in the city remained relatively low throughout the period, with a peak of 5 incidents in 2010 and dropping to zero reported cases from 2018 to 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.18 in 2010 to 0 in 2020. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated but generally remained low, falling from 0.48% in 2010 to 0% in 2020.

Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in overall property crime rates coincides with a slight decrease in population density, which fell from 4,682 per square mile in 2010 to 4,435 in 2020. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the rise in motor vehicle thefts and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of white residents decreased from 75% in 2013 to 70% in 2020, while the Asian population increased from 2% to 5%, and the Hispanic population remained relatively stable around 15-16%. This demographic shift coincides with the increase in motor vehicle thefts, although a direct causal relationship cannot be inferred without further investigation.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of some existing patterns. Burglary rates are likely to stabilize or continue a slight downward trend, potentially reaching around 30-35 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the most common property crime but may continue its downward trajectory, possibly settling around 150-170 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft, if current trends persist, could see a further increase, potentially reaching 50-60 incidents annually. Arson incidents are likely to remain low, with sporadic occurrences not exceeding 1-2 cases per year.

In summary, Oak Forest has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the past decade, with significant reductions in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted interventions. The city's changing demographics and their potential relationship to crime patterns warrant further examination to inform effective crime prevention strategies and maintain the overall positive trend in reducing property crimes.