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Property Crime Trends in Stallings, North Carolina: A Decade of Improvement Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Stallings, located in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside notable population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 47.5%, from 301 to 158 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 16.4%, from 12,874 to 14,982 residents, indicating a divergence between crime rates and population growth.
Burglary trends in the city show a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 60 burglaries, which decreased to 40 in 2022, representing a 33.3% reduction. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 4.66 in 2010 to 2.67 in 2022, a 42.7% decrease. Interestingly, despite this decline, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, suggesting a potentially faster decrease in burglaries at the state level compared to the local trend.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed a downward trend, with 234 cases in 2010 reducing to 101 in 2022, a 56.8% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 18.18 in 2010 to 6.74 in 2022, a significant 62.9% reduction. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.18% to 0.08% over this period, indicating a more rapid decline in larceny-theft locally compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited fluctuations but ultimately increased from 7 incidents in 2010 to 17 in 2022, a 142.9% rise. Despite population growth, the rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.54 to 1.13, a 109.3% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.07% to 0.12%, suggesting a local trend that diverged from state patterns.
Arson cases remained relatively low throughout the period, with 0 incidents in 2010 and 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0 to 0.07. The city's contribution to state arson cases rose from 0% to 0.11%, indicating a minimal but noticeable increase in local arson incidents relative to state figures.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $87,154 in 2013 to $95,766 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 237 to 158. Additionally, there is a notable correlation between the increase in racial diversity and the decrease in property crimes. The percentage of white residents decreased from 82% in 2013 to 75% in 2022, coinciding with the overall reduction in property crime incidents.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continuation of the overall declining trend in total property crimes. Based on historical data and current trends, we project a further decrease of approximately 15-20% in total property crimes by 2029, potentially reaching around 130-135 incidents annually. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise slightly, possibly reaching 20-22 incidents per year by 2029.
In summary, Stallings has experienced a significant reduction in overall property crime rates despite population growth, with notable decreases in burglaries and larceny-thefts. The increase in motor vehicle thefts and slight rise in arson cases, while concerning, have not offset the overall positive trend. These changes, coupled with rising median incomes and increasing racial diversity, paint a picture of an evolving community with improving safety metrics. As the town continues to grow and change, maintaining focus on factors contributing to these positive trends will be crucial for sustained progress in community safety and well-being.
