Robbery trends in the city have shown variation. In 2010, there were no reported robberies. This changed in 2012 with 4 reported cases, representing 0.05% of the state's robberies. By 2013, this number decreased to 2 cases, accounting for 0.03% of state robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at about 1.98 in 2012, dropping to approximately 0.92 in 2013. This decrease, despite population growth, might suggest improved security measures or community policing efforts.

Aggravated assault has been the most consistent form of violent crime in the city. In 2010, there were 6 cases, representing 0.04% of the state's total. This number remained stable through 2012 and 2013, despite population growth. The rate per 1,000 people actually decreased from about 3.56 in 2010 to 2.76 in 2013 due to population increase. This stability in absolute numbers, coupled with a decreasing rate, could indicate effective management of this type of crime despite urban growth.

There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,785 per square mile in 2010 to 2,301 in 2013, the total number of violent crimes also increased. However, the relationship is not strictly linear, as the crime rate per capita actually decreased for some categories like aggravated assault.

The racial composition of the city, with a predominantly Black population (around 90-94% from 2013 to 2022), remained relatively stable during the period when crime data is available. This stability in demographic composition suggests that changes in crime rates are likely influenced by factors other than racial distribution.

Applying predictive models based on the limited data available, we can cautiously forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Garysburg may see a slight increase in overall violent crimes, potentially reaching 10-12 incidents annually. This prediction assumes a continuation of current trends and stable population growth.

In summary, Garysburg has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates that generally correlate with its population growth. While murder rates have remained at zero, other forms of violent crime have shown variations. The most notable trends include the spike in rape cases in 2012 and the consistent presence of aggravated assaults. The city's ability to maintain relatively stable crime rates despite significant population growth suggests effective law enforcement strategies. However, ongoing vigilance and community-based crime prevention efforts will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety in Garysburg.