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Property Crime Trends in St. John, Missouri: A Decade of Mixed Progress
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
St. John, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 226 incidents in 2010 to 162 in 2022, representing a 28.3% reduction. During this same period, the population declined slightly from 6,684 in 2010 to 6,520 in 2022, a 2.5% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 41 burglaries, which peaked at 75 in 2012 before steadily declining to just 16 in 2022, marking a 61% decrease over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 6.13 in 2010 to 2.45 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.13% in 2010, peaking at 0.24% in 2012, and settling at 0.12% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, the reduction outpaced the state average, indicating improved local security measures or changing criminal patterns.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a downward trend, albeit less pronounced than burglaries. From 175 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 91 in 2022, a 48% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 26.18 in 2010 to 13.96 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.13% to 0.22% over the years, ending at 0.12% in 2022. This stability in the state percentage despite local decreases might indicate that larceny-theft reductions were part of a broader state-wide trend.
Contrary to the decreasing trends in burglary and larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft saw a significant increase. From 10 incidents in 2010, the number rose to 55 in 2022, a 450% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents jumped from 1.50 in 2010 to 8.44 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.23% in 2022, suggesting that this crime type grew faster in St. John than in the state overall. This trend could indicate a shift in criminal focus or new challenges in vehicle security within the city.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but showed an upward trend. From no reported cases in 2010, the number increased to 4 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0 to 0.61. The city's share of state arsons increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.65% in 2022, indicating that arson became a more significant issue in St. John relative to the rest of the state.
Examining correlations, a strong negative relationship is observed between the declining owner-occupied housing percentage (from 71% in 2013 to 54% in 2022) and the rise in motor vehicle thefts. This could suggest that areas with fewer homeowners might be more vulnerable to vehicle-related crimes. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the increasing Black population percentage (from 27% in 2013 to 37% in 2022) and the rise in motor vehicle thefts, though this correlation should be interpreted cautiously and in the context of broader socioeconomic factors.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued decrease in burglaries and larceny-thefts, potentially reaching historic lows. However, motor vehicle thefts are projected to continue rising, possibly exceeding 80 incidents annually by 2029 if current trends persist. Arson cases are expected to stabilize or slightly increase, potentially reaching 5-6 cases annually.
In summary, St. John has made significant strides in reducing burglaries and larceny-thefts over the past decade, outperforming state averages in these categories. However, the sharp rise in motor vehicle thefts and the emerging trend in arson cases present new challenges for law enforcement and community safety initiatives. These trends, coupled with changes in home ownership and demographic shifts, suggest an evolving landscape of property crime that will require targeted strategies and community engagement to address effectively in the coming years.
