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Property Crime Trends in St. James, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
St. James, Missouri, a small city with a population of 6,156 in 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased from 195 to 129, representing a 33.8% reduction. During this same period, the population grew by 4.2%, from 5,908 to 6,156 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 38 burglaries, which decreased to just 3 in 2012, before rising again to 25 in 2017. By 2022, the number stood at 14. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 6.43 in 2010 to 2.27 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.12% in 2010, dropping to 0.01% in 2012, and rising to 0.11% by 2022. This volatility suggests that while overall burglary rates have decreased, the city continues to face periodic spikes in this type of crime.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in St. James, also showed a downward trend. From 147 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 106 in 2022, a 27.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 24.88 to 17.22 over this period. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.08% and 0.14% from 2010 to 2022, with a peak of 0.25% in 2020. This indicates that while larceny-theft has decreased overall, it remains a persistent issue in the community.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an increase over time, despite some fluctuations. From 10 incidents in 2010, it dropped to just 1 in 2013 but rose to 9 by 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents changed from 1.69 in 2010 to 1.46 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft remains a concern, its prevalence relative to the state has diminished.
Arson cases in St. James have been relatively low but variable. From 1 incident in 2010, it peaked at 3 in 2016, and stood at 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents changed minimally from 0.17 in 2010 to 0.32 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased significantly from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.33% in 2022, indicating that arson has become a more prominent issue relative to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $43,240 in 2013 to $45,467 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a slight correlation between racial diversity and property crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 95% in 2013 to 91% in 2022, with corresponding increases in Hispanic and multi-racial populations, property crime rates showed some fluctuations.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes, potentially reaching around 100 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is likely to remain the predominant form of property crime, while burglary and motor vehicle theft may stabilize at current levels. Arson cases are expected to remain low but could see occasional spikes.
In summary, St. James has experienced a general decrease in property crime rates over the past decade, despite population growth. The city has made progress in reducing burglaries and larceny-thefts, though motor vehicle thefts and arson cases have shown some increases. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and increasing diversity, suggest a evolving urban landscape that continues to grapple with property crime issues, albeit at a reduced scale compared to earlier years.
