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Hannibal, Missouri: Mark Twain's Hometown Faces Rising Aggravated Assault Rates Amid Changing Crime Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Hannibal, Missouri, a city known for its rich history as the boyhood home of Mark Twain, has experienced significant fluctuations in violent crime over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 60%, from 50 to 80 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 1.5%, from 20,160 to 19,860 residents, indicating a disproportionate rise in crime relative to population changes.
Murder rates in the city have shown considerable volatility. In 2010, there were 2 murders, representing 0.59% of the state's total. The rate fluctuated over the years, with some years (2011, 2012, 2014, 2017, 2018, and 2021) recording zero murders. By 2022, the number returned to 2 murders, accounting for 0.37% of the state's total. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained relatively low, peaking at 0.14 per 1,000 in 2015 and 2022.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 7 reported rapes, which increased to 24 in 2018, a 243% increase. This represented a rise from 0.35 to 1.16 rapes per 1,000 people. The city's share of state rape cases also increased from 0.65% in 2010 to 1.2% in 2018. However, by 2022, the number decreased to 6 reported rapes, representing 0.28% of the state's total.
Robbery trends have been more stable but show a general decline. In 2010, there were 16 robberies, which decreased to 6 in 2022, a 62.5% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.79 in 2010 to 0.30 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies fluctuated but generally decreased from 0.29% in 2010 to 0.20% in 2022.
Aggravated assaults have shown the most significant increase among violent crimes. In 2010, there were 25 aggravated assaults, which rose to 66 in 2022, a 164% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.24 in 2010 to 3.32 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assaults rose from 0.17% to 0.38% during this period.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crimes and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of white residents remained relatively stable at around 88-89%, while the percentage of residents identifying as two or more races increased from 1% in 2013 to 3% in 2022. This demographic shift coincided with the overall increase in violent crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential continuation of the upward trend in aggravated assaults if current conditions persist. However, the recent decrease in rapes and the relatively stable murder rate suggest that these specific crimes may not see significant increases.
In summary, Hannibal has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, despite a slight population decrease. The city's share of state-wide violent crimes has generally increased, especially in aggravated assaults. While some crime categories like robbery have shown improvement, the overall trend suggests a need for targeted interventions to address the rising violence, particularly in light of the demographic changes observed over the past decade.
