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Property Crime Trends in Clarkton, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Clarkton, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the past decade, this small community has experienced significant fluctuations in its property crime rates, set against a backdrop of changing population dynamics. From 2010 to 2020, total property crimes decreased from 20 to 1, marking a 95% reduction. During this same period, the population declined by 8.7%, from 1,704 to 1,555.5 residents.
The burglary rate in the city has shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 5 burglaries reported, translating to approximately 2.93 incidents per 1,000 residents. By 2016, this had decreased to 3 burglaries, or about 1.70 per 1,000 residents. The most dramatic change occurred between 2016 and 2018, when burglaries dropped to zero and remained at that level through 2020. This decline is particularly significant when considering the city's share of state burglaries, which fell from 0.02% in 2010 to 0% by 2018. This trend suggests a substantial improvement in residential and commercial security within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also demonstrated a decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 13 reported incidents (7.63 per 1,000 residents), which increased to 24 in 2012 (14.63 per 1,000 residents) before declining to zero by 2020. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.02% from 2010 to 2016, dropping to 0% by 2020. This significant reduction in larceny-theft cases indicates improved community vigilance and potentially more effective law enforcement strategies.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown more volatility. From 2 incidents in 2010 (1.17 per 1,000 residents), it peaked at 4 in 2016 (2.27 per 1,000 residents), before declining to 1 in 2020 (0.64 per 1,000 residents). The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts ranged from 0% to 0.03% during this period. Despite the fluctuations, the overall trend shows a decrease, suggesting improved vehicle security measures or increased community awareness.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic. There was 1 reported case in 2010, 2012, and 2016, representing 0.1%, 0.1%, and 0.12% of state arson cases respectively. In other years, no arson cases were reported. The infrequent nature of these incidents makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but the low numbers generally indicate that arson is not a persistent problem in the community.
Examining correlations between crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincides with a slight increase in median income, from $29,930 in 2013 to $34,337 in 2022. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 59% and 64% from 2013 to 2022, which may have helped maintain community stability and reduce crime opportunities.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's reasonable to forecast that property crime rates in Clarkton will likely remain low over the next five years, potentially stabilizing at or near the 2020 levels. By 2029, we might expect to see occasional fluctuations in individual crime categories, but the overall property crime rate is likely to remain significantly lower than the 2010 figures, assuming current socioeconomic trends continue.
In conclusion, Clarkton has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade. The significant reductions across all categories of property crime, particularly when viewed in the context of population changes and economic improvements, suggest a community that has become safer and more secure. These trends, if maintained, position the city favorably for continued low crime rates in the coming years.
