Motor vehicle theft presented a more complex trend. While the number of thefts increased from 51 in 2010 to 168 in 2022, a 229.4% rise, the rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.77 to 2.36, a 206.5% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.39% to 0.69%, suggesting that this crime type became relatively more prevalent in St. Charles compared to other parts of Missouri. This trend warrants attention from local law enforcement and policymakers.

Arson cases in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall decrease. From 16 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 3 in 2022, an 81.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.24 to 0.04, an 83.3% decline. The city's contribution to state arson cases fell from 1.54% to 0.49%, indicating a significant improvement in arson prevention relative to the rest of Missouri.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the median income in the city rose from $53,739 in 2013 to $85,798 in 2022, a 59.7% increase, property crimes decreased by 29.8% in the same period. This strong negative correlation suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 63% in 2013 to 68% in 2022, which coincided with the decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher home ownership rates are associated with lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend. Based on historical data and current socioeconomic trajectories, it's projected that total property crimes could decrease by another 15-20% by 2029. However, motor vehicle theft may continue to be a challenge, potentially increasing by 10-15% if current trends persist.

In conclusion, St. Charles has made significant strides in reducing property crimes over the past decade, with notable improvements in burglary, larceny-theft, and arson rates. The inverse relationship between rising median income and declining crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further enhance public safety. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts presents an ongoing challenge that may require targeted interventions. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining focus on community-based crime prevention strategies and addressing economic disparities will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.