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Property Crime Trends in Spanish Fort, Alabama: A Decade of Decline Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Spanish Fort, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced significant fluctuations in total property crimes, with an overall decrease of 49.6% from 367 in 2010 to 185 in 2022. This trend occurred alongside substantial population growth, with the number of residents increasing by 41.3% from 12,028 in 2010 to 16,996 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 28 burglaries reported, which decreased to 26 by 2022, representing a 7.1% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 people fell from 2.33 in 2010 to 1.53 in 2022, a 34.3% decrease. Interestingly, despite this decline in absolute numbers and population-adjusted rates, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.23% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, the improvement has been less pronounced compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, saw a significant decrease over the study period. The number of larceny-theft incidents dropped from 338 in 2010 to 152 in 2022, a 55% reduction. When adjusted for population, the rate decreased from 28.1 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 8.94 per 1,000 in 2022, representing a 68.2% decline. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents decreased from 0.46% in 2010 to 0.33% in 2022, indicating that the city's improvement in this category outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends show more volatility. In 2010, there was only 1 reported case, which increased to 7 by 2022. This represents a 600% increase in absolute numbers. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate increased from 0.08 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.41 per 1,000 in 2022, a 412.5% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2022, indicating that this crime category grew faster in the city compared to the state average.
Regarding arson, the data is limited, with most years reporting "No Data Available." The only year with a concrete figure is 2022, which reported 0 arson cases. This lack of data makes it impossible to analyze trends or make meaningful comparisons over time for this specific crime category.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $85,852 in 2013 to $99,407 in 2022, the overall property crime rate decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a slight positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both increasing from 2018 to 2022.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to remain relatively stable, while larceny-theft may continue its downward trend. Motor vehicle theft rates, however, may see a slight increase if current trends persist.
In summary, Spanish Fort has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, particularly in larceny-theft, despite substantial population growth. This trend, coupled with rising median incomes and homeownership rates, suggests improving socioeconomic conditions that may contribute to lower crime rates. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts and the city's growing share of state burglaries highlight areas that may require continued attention from law enforcement and community leaders.
