Motor vehicle theft rates have remained relatively stable, with 3 incidents in 2010 and 5 in 2022. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.78 in 2010 to 1.09 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low but doubled from 0.02% to 0.04% over the period, suggesting a slight increase in the city's contribution to state totals.

Arson incidents have been sporadic, with only one reported case in 2010, 2013, 2017, and 2019, and none in other years. This inconsistency makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but it's worth noting that when arson did occur, it represented a significant portion of state incidents (10% to 17%), indicating that even rare occurrences have a notable impact on state statistics for a city of this size.

Examining correlations between property crime and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,512 per square mile in 2010 to 1,794 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. The median income rose from $40,987 in 2013 to $46,962 in 2022, coinciding with an overall decrease in property crime, which could indicate that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.

The racial composition of the city has remained predominantly white, with a slight decrease from 88% in 2019 to 78% in 2022. During this period, there was a small increase in diversity, particularly in the "two or more races" category, which grew from 4% to 11%. This demographic shift coincided with a slight uptick in property crimes from 51 in 2019 to 63 in 2022, though it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and multiple factors influence crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that property crime rates may continue to fluctuate but generally maintain a downward trend over the next five years. By 2029, we might expect to see total property crimes decrease by another 10-15%, potentially reaching around 55 incidents annually. However, this projection assumes consistent demographic and economic trends.

In summary, Seneca has experienced an overall decrease in property crime rates despite population growth, with burglary and larceny theft showing the most significant reductions. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has remained relatively small but has increased in some categories, particularly burglary. The relationship between demographic changes, economic improvements, and crime rates suggests a complex interplay of factors influencing public safety in this small Missouri city.