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Property Crime Trends in Sedalia, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Sedalia, Missouri, a city with a rich history dating back to the mid-19th century, has experienced notable shifts in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Sedalia decreased significantly by 52.6%, from 1,301 to 617 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a modest population growth of 4.1%, from 30,900 to 32,179 residents during the same period.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a marked improvement over time. In 2010, there were 280 burglaries reported, which dropped to 131 by 2022, representing a 53.2% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 9.06 to 4.07 incidents per 1,000 residents. Interestingly, despite this significant reduction in absolute numbers, Sedalia's share of state burglaries increased from 0.87% in 2010 to 0.99% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, the improvement has been less pronounced compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Sedalia, also experienced a substantial decline. The number of incidents decreased from 968 in 2010 to 429 in 2022, a 55.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 31.33 to 13.33. However, the city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.85% to 0.55% over this period, indicating that Sedalia's improvement in this category outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a more complex trend. While the number of incidents increased slightly from 53 in 2010 to 57 in 2022, the rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, moving from 1.72 to 1.77. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.40% to 0.24%, suggesting that this type of crime became relatively less prevalent in Sedalia compared to other parts of Missouri.
Arson cases in Sedalia fluctuated over the years but ultimately decreased from 7 incidents in 2010 to 2 in 2022, a 71.4% reduction. The arson rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.23 to 0.06. The city's proportion of state arson cases dropped from 0.67% to 0.33%, indicating a significant improvement relative to the state average.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $42,768 in 2013 to $51,451 in 2022, a 20.3% rise, property crime rates generally declined. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries are projected to decrease by approximately 15-20%, while larceny-theft may see a reduction of 10-15%. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain relatively stable, with potential fluctuations of ±5%. Arson cases are likely to remain low, with potential for further slight decreases.
In summary, Sedalia has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, outpacing population growth and often improving faster than the state average. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft has remained relatively stable. The inverse correlation between rising median incomes and falling crime rates suggests that economic development may play a role in enhancing public safety. As Sedalia looks to the future, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for the continued well-being and economic vitality of the community.
