Motor vehicle theft trends have fluctuated but ultimately decreased over the studied period. In 2010, there were 513 incidents, which dropped to 354 in 2022, a 31% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 16.3 to 9.7. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased less dramatically, from 0.40% to 0.23%, suggesting that while local efforts have been effective, the issue remains a concern relative to state-wide trends.

Arson cases in the city have shown volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 6 reported cases, which increased to 29 in 2020, before dropping to no reported cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.82 in 2020 but fell to zero in 2022. The city's proportion of state arson cases fluctuated significantly, from 0.10% in 2010 to 0.29% in 2020, before dropping to 0% in 2022. These fluctuations may indicate sporadic incidents rather than a consistent trend.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As population density increased from 11,997 per square mile in 2010 to 13,877 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. There appears to be a moderate inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $55,704 in 2013 to $62,493 in 2022, property crime rates tended to decrease, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on current trends, burglaries and larceny thefts are expected to continue decreasing, while motor vehicle thefts may stabilize or show a slight increase. Arson cases are likely to remain low but may experience occasional spikes due to their volatile nature.

In summary, San Pablo has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, despite population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny theft rates, while motor vehicle theft remains a concern relative to state-wide figures. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and increasing population density, paint a picture of a city that has effectively managed its crime challenges while experiencing urban growth and development.