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Property Crime Trends in San Gabriel: A Decade of Fluctuations and Demographic Shifts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
San Gabriel, a city in California with a rich cultural heritage, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes decreased by 7.24%, from 566 to 525 incidents. During this same period, the city's population remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly by 0.61% from 40,788 to 40,539 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 164 burglaries, which decreased to 114 by 2020, representing a 30.49% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 4.02 to 2.81. However, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively constant, fluctuating between 0.07% and 0.14% over the decade. This suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, the trend was somewhat consistent with statewide patterns.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, saw an overall increase. In 2010, there were 342 incidents, rising to 355 by 2020, a 3.80% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 8.38 to 8.76. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.07% to 0.08%, indicating a slightly higher growth rate compared to the state average. This trend suggests a need for targeted prevention strategies to address this specific type of property crime.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited a slight decrease over the decade. In 2010, there were 60 incidents, which decreased to 56 by 2020, a 6.67% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 1.47 to 1.38. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable at around 0.04-0.05%, indicating that local trends generally aligned with statewide patterns.
Arson cases in the city showed a dramatic increase. In 2010, there was only 1 reported case, which rose to 11 by 2020, a 1000% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.02 to 0.27. More significantly, the city's share of state arsons increased from 0.02% to 0.11%, suggesting a localized issue that outpaced statewide trends. This alarming increase warrants immediate attention and targeted intervention strategies.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The rise in property crimes, particularly larceny-theft and arson, coincides with a slight decrease in homeownership rates, which fell from 50% in 2013 to 46% in 2020. This could suggest a potential link between property ownership and crime rates. Additionally, the median income increased from $67,044 in 2013 to $78,294 in 2020, a 16.78% rise, yet this did not seem to correlate with a decrease in property crimes, challenging assumptions about the relationship between economic prosperity and crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of recent patterns. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the dominant property crime, potentially increasing by 5-10% if current trends persist. Burglary rates may stabilize or slightly decrease, while motor vehicle theft could remain relatively constant. The most concerning projection is for arson cases, which could potentially double if the current upward trend continues unchecked.
In summary, San Gabriel's property crime landscape presents a mixed picture. While some categories like burglary have shown improvement, others like larceny-theft and especially arson have worsened. The disconnect between rising median incomes and persistent property crime rates highlights the complex nature of urban crime dynamics. As the city moves forward, targeted strategies to address specific crime categories, particularly arson and larceny-theft, will be crucial in shaping a safer community for its residents.
