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Property Crime Trends in Samson, Alabama: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Samson, Alabama, a small urban area with a population of 4,391 in 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 42 to 12, representing a 71.4% reduction. This decline in crime occurred alongside a population decrease of 14.7% during the same period, from 5,147 in 2010 to 4,391 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a downward trend over time. In 2010, there were 6 reported burglaries, which increased to a peak of 29 in 2012 before declining to just 3 in 2022. This represents a 50% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.17 in 2010 to 0.68 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.03% and 0.09% over the years, indicating that the local trend generally aligned with statewide patterns.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, has also seen a substantial decrease. From 35 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 81 in 2013 before dropping to 8 in 2022, marking a 77.1% decrease over the 12-year period. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 6.80 in 2010 to 1.82 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, suggesting a more rapid decline compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated but ultimately remained low. From a single incident in 2010, it reached a high of 7 in 2015 before returning to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents was 0.19 in 2010 and 0.23 in 2022, showing a slight increase despite the same number of incidents. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied between 0.01% and 0.09%, with no clear trend emerging.
Arson data for the city is limited, with many years showing no reported incidents. In 2011, there were 2 arson cases, representing 0.36% of state arsons. The only other year with reported arson was 2021, with 1 incident accounting for 0.76% of state arsons. Due to the scarcity of data, it's challenging to establish a meaningful trend for arson in the city.
Examining correlations between crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,422 per square mile in 2010 to 1,213 in 2022, property crime rates also declined. This suggests a potential link between lower population density and reduced property crime. Additionally, the median income increased from $28,798 in 2013 to $35,233 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. The percentage of owner-occupied housing also rose from 67% in 2013 to 78% in 2022, which may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes, particularly burglaries.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may experience fewer than 10 total property crimes annually, with larceny-theft remaining the most common but at significantly reduced levels. Burglaries and motor vehicle thefts are expected to remain in the low single digits or potentially reach zero in some years.
In summary, Samson has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade. The significant reductions in burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft, coupled with increasing median income and homeownership rates, paint a picture of a community that has become safer and more stable. These positive trends, if maintained, suggest a promising outlook for the city's safety and quality of life in the coming years.
