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Property Crime Trends in Russellville, Alabama: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Russellville, Alabama, a city with a rich industrial history, has experienced notable shifts in its property crime landscape from 2011 to 2022. The total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 363 in 2011 to 225 in 2022, marking a 38% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a modest population growth, with the city's population increasing from 15,997 in 2011 to 15,791 in 2022, representing a slight decrease of 1.3%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2011, there were 123 burglaries, which dropped to 40 in 2022, representing a 67.5% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 7.69 per 1,000 people in 2011 to 2.53 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this significant reduction, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.33% in 2011 to 0.35% in 2022, suggesting that the decline in burglaries may have been even more pronounced at the state level.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a downward trend. The number of larceny-theft incidents decreased from 223 in 2011 to 170 in 2022, a 23.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 13.94 in 2011 to 10.77 in 2022. However, similar to burglary, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.25% to 0.36% over this period, indicating that the city's reduction in larceny-theft was less pronounced than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a slight decrease, from 17 incidents in 2011 to 15 in 2022, a 11.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased marginally from 1.06 to 0.95. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.20% to 0.22%, suggesting that the reduction in this crime category was relatively in line with state trends.
Arson data was only available for 2022, with one reported incident, representing 0.19% of state arsons. This limited data makes it challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes coincided with a period of increasing median income, which rose from $39,127 in 2013 to $45,784 in 2022. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 60% in 2013 to 67% in 2022. These trends suggest a potential link between improved economic conditions and reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which we'll refer to as five years from now), we can anticipate a continuation of the overall downward trend in property crimes. Based on the historical data and current trends, we might expect total property crimes to decrease by an additional 15-20% by 2029, potentially reaching around 180-190 incidents annually.
In summary, Russellville has demonstrated a significant improvement in its property crime rates over the past decade, with substantial reductions in burglary and larceny-theft. This positive trend, occurring alongside modest population growth and improving economic indicators, suggests a strengthening community fabric and potentially more effective law enforcement strategies. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
