Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Rogersville, Alabama: A Study of Declining Rates Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Rogersville, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, peaking at 77 incidents in 2011 and declining to 18 in 2022, marking a 76.6% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 4,170 in 2010 to 5,247 in 2022, a 25.8% increase, suggesting a complex relationship between population growth and crime rates.
Burglary trends in the city show notable volatility. In 2011, burglaries spiked to 23 incidents, representing 0.06% of state burglaries. However, by 2022, this number had dropped to 6, or 0.05% of state burglaries. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate decreased from 5.34 per 1,000 people in 2011 to 1.14 per 1,000 in 2022. This significant reduction, despite population growth, suggests improved security measures or increased law enforcement effectiveness.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a downward trend. In 2011, there were 48 incidents (0.05% of state larcenies), which decreased to 9 incidents (0.02% of state larcenies) by 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 11.14 in 2011 to 1.72 in 2022. This substantial decrease, outpacing population growth, indicates a significant improvement in preventing petty thefts and shoplifting.
Motor vehicle theft remained relatively stable over the years, with slight fluctuations. In 2011, there were 6 incidents (0.07% of state vehicle thefts), which decreased to 3 incidents (0.04% of state vehicle thefts) by 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.39 in 2011 to 0.57 in 2022. This trend suggests that while motor vehicle theft remains a concern, it has not escalated with population growth.
Arson data is limited, with only two reported incidents: one in 2011 (0.18% of state arsons) and one in 2022 (0.19% of state arsons). The rarity of these incidents makes it difficult to establish a meaningful trend, but it's worth noting that arson has not been a persistent problem in the city.
A strong correlation exists between property crime trends and median income. As median income rose from $43,307 in 2013 to $63,429 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, there's a positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing (increasing from 80% in 2013 to 85% in 2022) and the decrease in property crimes, indicating that higher homeownership rates may contribute to community stability and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), property crimes in Rogersville may continue to decrease, potentially reaching as low as 10-15 incidents per year. This prediction assumes continued economic growth and stable community factors.
In summary, Rogersville has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes despite population growth, with particularly notable decreases in burglary and larceny-theft. The correlation between rising median income, increased homeownership, and declining crime rates suggests that economic development and community stability play crucial roles in crime reduction. These trends paint a picture of a city that has made substantial progress in enhancing public safety and quality of life for its residents.
