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Property Crime Trends in Ashland, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Ashland, Alabama, a small town with a population that decreased from 4,911 in 2010 to 4,434 in 2022, has experienced a notable decline in property crime over the past decade. This trend occurred alongside economic improvements, presenting an intriguing case study in the relationship between socioeconomic factors and crime rates. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Ashland fluctuated but ultimately decreased by 27.9%, dropping from a peak of 63 incidents in 2013 to 31 in 2022.
Burglary rates in Ashland have shown significant volatility over the years. In 2010, there were only 4 reported burglaries, which increased dramatically to 24 in 2013, before declining to 6 in 2022. This translates to a rate of 0.81 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2010, peaking at 5.48 per 1,000 in 2013, and settling at 1.35 per 1,000 in 2022. Ashland's share of state burglaries fluctuated from 0.02% in 2010 to a high of 0.1% in 2018, before decreasing to 0.05% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglary rates have increased overall since 2010, they have become less prevalent in recent years relative to the state average.
Larceny-theft, which is the most common property crime in Ashland, displayed a downward trend over the decade. Incidents decreased from 37 in 2010 to 24 in 2022, representing a 35.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 7.53 in 2010 to 5.41 in 2022. Despite this decrease, Ashland's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.05% throughout the period. This indicates that the reduction in larceny-theft aligns with broader state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in Ashland has remained relatively low but variable. From 2 incidents in 2010, it reached a high of 6 in 2018, before decreasing to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 0.41 in 2010 to 1.42 in 2018, and down to 0.23 in 2022. Ashland's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied between 0.01% and 0.07% during this period, indicating that this crime type has a minimal impact on state statistics.
Arson data for Ashland is limited, with only one reported incident in 2022, representing 0.19% of state arson cases. This single incident translates to a rate of 0.23 per 1,000 residents. Given the scarcity of data, it's challenging to discern any meaningful trends for arson in the city.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. Ashland's median income increased from $31,170 in 2013 to $45,297 in 2022, a 45.3% rise. During this same period, property crimes decreased by 50.8%, suggesting a potential inverse relationship between income levels and property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 67% in 2013 to 73% in 2022, coinciding with the decline in property crimes. This could indicate that higher rates of homeownership might contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, Ashland may see approximately 25-28 property crimes annually, maintaining a rate of around 5-6 incidents per 1,000 residents, assuming population levels remain relatively stable.
In conclusion, Ashland has experienced a notable decrease in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in larceny-theft and burglary. This positive trend coincides with improvements in economic indicators such as median income and homeownership rates. While challenges remain, the overall trajectory suggests a safer community with declining property crime rates, positioning the city favorably for continued improvements in public safety and quality of life for its residents.
