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Property Crime Trends in Rittman, Ohio: A Decade of Fluctuations and Overall Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Rittman, located in Ohio, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2017, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 44.1% from 195 to 109 incidents. During this same period, the population increased slightly by 4.9%, from 10,848 to 11,380 residents.
Burglary rates in the city showed a significant downward trend over the observed period. In 2010, there were 47 burglaries, which decreased to 36 by 2017, representing a 23.4% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 4.33 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 3.16 per 1,000 in 2017. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2017, suggesting a potentially faster decline in burglaries at the state level.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 146 reported cases, which dropped to 65 by 2017, a 55.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 13.46 in 2010 to 5.71 in 2017. However, similar to burglary, the city's proportion of state larceny-theft incidents decreased from 0.1% to 0.05% over the same period, indicating a potential statewide trend of decreasing larceny-theft rates.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility. In 2010, there were only 2 reported cases, which increased to 8 by 2017, a 300% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.18 in 2010 to 0.70 in 2017. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased significantly, from 0.01% to 0.05%, suggesting that this trend might be more localized to the city rather than reflective of statewide patterns.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low throughout the period. In 2010, there was 1 reported case, and this number remained the same in 2017. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased from 0.04% to 0.08%, indicating a possible decrease in arson cases at the state level while the city maintained its rate.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $57,968 in 2013 to $67,337 in 2021, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a slight correlation between the decrease in owner-occupied housing (from 82% in 2013 to 75% in 2021) and the fluctuation in property crime rates, particularly burglary.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to maintain their downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Motor vehicle theft may continue to show slight increases, while arson rates are predicted to remain relatively stable.
In conclusion, Rittman has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the observed period, with notable decreases in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts and the city's growing share of state crime percentages in certain categories warrant continued attention. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts, suggest a complex interplay of factors influencing property crime in the city, necessitating ongoing monitoring and adaptive crime prevention strategies.
