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Property Crime Trends in Rio Dell: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Rio Dell, a small city in California, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, with notable changes in various categories. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 2.56%, from 78 to 76 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 0.03%, from 3,760 to 3,779 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 20 burglaries reported, which decreased to 9 in 2022, representing a 55% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.32 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.38 per 1,000 in 2022. Despite this decline, the city's contribution to state burglary statistics remained relatively stable at 0.01% throughout the period, suggesting that the reduction in burglaries was consistent with statewide trends.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed an increase over the studied period. In 2010, there were 48 reported incidents, which rose to 59 in 2022, marking a 22.92% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 12.77 in 2010 to 15.61 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny theft remained constant at 0.01%, indicating that the increase was in line with statewide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city exhibited a decrease from 10 incidents in 2010 to 8 in 2022, a 20% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 2.66 in 2010 to 2.12 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics remained low at 0.01% throughout most of the period, with occasional years showing no significant contribution.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively rare and stable. There was 1 reported case in both 2010 and 2022, with several years reporting no incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents remained consistently low, at 0.27 in 2010 and 0.26 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson statistics fluctuated between 0% and 0.02%, indicating minimal impact on statewide figures.
A notable correlation exists between property crime trends and median income in the city. As median income decreased from $42,764 in 2013 to $37,784 in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in certain property crimes, particularly larceny theft. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units decreased from 66% in 2013 to 52% in 2022, which coincided with fluctuations in property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight increase in overall property crimes. Larceny theft is expected to continue its upward trend, potentially reaching 65-70 incidents annually. Burglaries may stabilize around 10-12 cases per year, while motor vehicle theft could see a minor increase to 9-10 incidents annually. Arson cases are predicted to remain low, with 0-1 incidents per year.
In summary, Rio Dell has experienced a complex evolution of property crime patterns over the past decade. While burglaries and motor vehicle thefts have decreased, larceny theft has risen. These trends, coupled with demographic and economic changes, suggest a shifting landscape of property crime in the city. The forecasted increases in certain crime categories underscore the need for continued vigilance and adaptive crime prevention strategies in the coming years.
