Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a downward trend. There were 12 cases in 2020, which increased to 17 in 2021, before dropping significantly to 7 in 2022, representing a 41.7% decrease over the three-year period. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.42 in 2020 to 0.85 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also decreased from 0.84% in 2020 to 0.41% in 2022, suggesting that the city has made substantial progress in reducing this type of crime relative to state averages.

Arson cases in the city were rare but saw an increase. There were no reported cases in 2020 and 2021, but one case was reported in 2022. This single case represented 1.43% of state arson cases in 2022, a significant proportion given the city's size. While this increase is notable, the small number of cases makes it difficult to draw broader conclusions about arson trends in the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes from 2020 to 2022 coincided with a slight decrease in population density from 674 to 659 people per square mile. Additionally, there was a notable decrease in median income from $49,669.5 in 2020 to $44,659 in 2022, which could potentially be linked to the fluctuations in property crime rates. The percentage of owner-occupied housing increased slightly from 65% in 2020 to 67% in 2022, which may have contributed to the overall decrease in property crimes, particularly burglaries.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall decreasing trend in property crimes. Based on the current trajectories, we might expect to see burglary rates stabilize around 15-20 cases per year, larceny-theft cases to remain in the 70-75 range annually, and motor vehicle thefts to stay below 10 cases per year. Arson cases are likely to remain rare, with potentially 0-1 cases per year.

In summary, Richland has shown a generally positive trend in property crime reduction from 2020 to 2022, with notable decreases in burglary and motor vehicle theft. The city's property crime rates have improved relative to state averages in most categories. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts such as increased home ownership, suggest that the city is making progress in addressing property crime issues. However, the decrease in median income warrants attention as it could potentially influence future crime rates. As the city moves forward, maintaining focus on community-based crime prevention strategies and addressing economic challenges will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.