Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Red Springs: A Decade of Decline and Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Red Springs, located in North Carolina, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 43.27%, from 349 to 198 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 9.96%, from 12,764 to 11,493 residents. This overall reduction in property crimes, despite a smaller population decline, suggests an improvement in the city's safety profile.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 147 burglaries, which decreased to 52 in 2022, representing a 64.63% reduction. When accounting for population changes, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 11.52 in 2010 to 4.52 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated dramatically, starting at 0.27% in 2010, peaking at 0.56% in 2020, and then dropping to 0.21% in 2022. This indicates that while burglaries have generally decreased, the city experienced periods where it contributed disproportionately to the state's burglary statistics.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased over time, though less dramatically than burglaries. The number of larceny-thefts fell from 179 in 2010 to 135 in 2022, a 24.58% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people declined from 14.02 to 11.75 during this period. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.10% and 0.14%, suggesting that the local trend generally aligned with statewide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a downward trend, decreasing from 23 incidents in 2010 to 11 in 2022, a 52.17% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.80 to 0.96. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts declined from 0.22% to 0.08%, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state average.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated but showed an overall increase. In 2010, there was 1 reported case, which rose to 3 in 2022, a 200% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.08 to 0.26. The city's contribution to state arson cases rose from 0.10% to 0.34%, suggesting a disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
A strong correlation exists between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 3,646 per square mile in 2010 to 3,283 in 2022, there was a corresponding decline in overall property crime rates. This suggests that lower population density may contribute to reduced property crime opportunities.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which we'll refer to as five years from now), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crimes. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 40-45 incidents annually, while larceny-thefts may settle in the range of 120-130 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to remain relatively low, potentially averaging 10-12 incidents annually. Arson cases, despite their recent increase, are expected to fluctuate between 2-4 incidents per year.
In summary, Red Springs has shown a general improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade, with significant reductions in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts. The correlation between decreasing population density and reduced crime rates suggests that urban planning and community development strategies may play a role in maintaining this positive trend. However, the slight increase in arson cases warrants attention from local law enforcement and community leaders to prevent further escalation.
