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Property Crime Trends in Thomasville: A Decade of Change and Economic Correlation
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Thomasville, located in North Carolina, has experienced notable shifts in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes decreased by 39.7%, from 1,138 to 686 incidents. This significant reduction occurred alongside a modest population growth of 2.5%, from 36,642 to 37,562 residents during the same period.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 298 burglaries reported, which decreased to 172 by 2021, representing a 42.3% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 8.13 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 4.58 per 1,000 in 2021. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.55% in 2010 to 0.67% in 2021, suggesting that burglary rates may have declined more rapidly in other parts of the state.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant downward trend. Incidents decreased from 805 in 2010 to 449 in 2021, a 44.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 21.97 to 11.95 over this period. However, the city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased from 0.62% to 0.39%, indicating that this crime type may have decreased more rapidly in the city compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends present a more complex picture. While the number of incidents increased from 35 in 2010 to 65 in 2021, representing an 85.7% rise, the rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.96 to 1.73. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, rising from 0.33% in 2010 to a peak of 0.84% in 2020, before decreasing to 0.49% in 2021. This suggests that while motor vehicle thefts increased in the city, the trend may have been even more pronounced elsewhere in the state during certain years.
Arson cases in the city have shown volatility but an overall increase. From 6 incidents in 2010 to 8 in 2021, there was a 33.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose slightly from 0.16 to 0.21. The city's contribution to state arson figures increased significantly from 0.59% to 0.92%, indicating that arson became a relatively larger issue in the city compared to the state average.
A strong correlation emerges between the overall decrease in property crimes and the increase in median income. As the median income rose from $40,411 in 2013 to $51,947 in 2021, a 28.5% increase, property crimes decreased by 37.4% during the same period. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see a further reduction in overall property crimes to approximately 550 incidents annually. This projection assumes that current socioeconomic trends and law enforcement strategies continue.
In summary, Thomasville has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, while facing challenges with increasing motor vehicle thefts and arson incidents. The strong correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further enhance public safety in the coming years.
