Motor vehicle theft trends in Ragland show a more complex pattern. There were 4 reported cases in 2010, which decreased to 0 in 2013 but then increased to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated from 0.95 in 2010 to 0 in 2013, and then to 0.95 in 2022. Despite these fluctuations, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, indicating that the city's motor vehicle theft problem has improved relative to the state average.

Arson data for Ragland is limited, with most years reporting no data available. The only year with a concrete figure is 2022, which reported 0 arsons. This lack of data makes it challenging to analyze trends or draw meaningful conclusions about arson in the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes coincides with a decrease in population density, which fell from 251 per square mile in 2010 to 187 in 2022. This could suggest that lower population density may contribute to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the rise in median income and the decrease in property crimes. The median income increased from $39,847 in 2013 to $43,571 in 2022, which might indicate that improved economic conditions could be a factor in reducing property crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could decrease to around 10-12 per year, with burglaries potentially reaching near-zero levels. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the most common property crime but could decrease to about 8-10 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft is predicted to stabilize at 1-2 cases per year.

In summary, Ragland has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population decline. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates. These positive trends correlate with increasing median income and decreasing population density, suggesting that economic improvements and demographic changes may play a role in crime reduction. If these trends continue as predicted, the city could see even lower property crime rates in the coming years, potentially positioning it as a model for small-town crime reduction strategies in Alabama.