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Property Crime Trends in Poulan, Georgia: A Study of Fluctuating Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Poulan, located in Georgia, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2015, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, peaking at 93 in 2012 before declining to 15 in 2015, representing an overall decrease of 31.8% over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 1,382 in 2010 to 1,793 in 2022, a 29.7% increase, adding complexity to the crime rate analysis.
Burglary trends in the city showed considerable variation. In 2010, there were 5 burglaries, which spiked to 30 in 2012 before declining back to 8 in 2015. This represents a 60% increase over the period, despite the overall drop in total property crimes. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 3.62 in 2010 to 5.17 in 2015. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries rose from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2015, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, demonstrated a downward trend. From 17 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 63 in 2012 before dramatically decreasing to 7 in 2015, a 58.8% overall reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents fell from 12.30 in 2010 to 4.53 in 2015. However, the city's share of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.02% to 0.01% over the period, suggesting a reduction in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city was infrequent, with only one reported incident in 2011 and 2013, and zero incidents in other years. This translates to a rate that never exceeded 0.64 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle thefts remained negligible, never surpassing 0.01% of the state total. This suggests that motor vehicle theft was not a significant concern for the city during this period.
Arson data for the city was largely unavailable, with only 2012, 2014, and 2015 reporting zero incidents. This lack of data makes it challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The spike in property crimes in 2012 coincided with a period of population growth and relatively low median income. As the median income increased from $33,996 in 2013 to $40,390 in 2019, there was a general downward trend in property crimes. This suggests a potential negative correlation between income levels and property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the limited and fluctuating data available. However, if the trends observed between 2010 and 2015 continue, we might expect to see a continued overall decrease in total property crimes, potentially reaching single digits annually. Burglary rates may stabilize or slightly decrease, assuming economic conditions continue to improve. Larceny-theft is likely to remain the predominant property crime but at lower levels than the early 2010s. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain rare, with possibly zero to one incident per year. Arson incidents are likely to remain at or near zero, based on the limited data available.
In summary, Poulan has experienced a complex interplay of crime trends and demographic changes. The significant reduction in overall property crimes, particularly larceny-theft, suggests improving safety conditions. However, the fluctuations in burglary rates and the city's increasing share of state burglaries warrant continued attention. The relationship between rising median incomes and decreasing crime rates provides a positive indicator for future crime reduction efforts in the city.
