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Property Crime Trends in Monroe, Georgia: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Monroe, located in Georgia, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, peaking at 1,057 in 2013 before declining to 467 in 2022, representing a 29.8% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 22,765 in 2010 to 25,750 in 2022, a 13.1% increase, setting the stage for a complex interplay between crime rates and demographic changes.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a dramatic decline over the years. In 2010, there were 200 burglaries, which peaked at 384 in 2013 before plummeting to just 42 in 2022, marking a 79% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 8.79 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.63 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.56% in 2010 to 1.26% in 2013, before falling to 0.45% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglaries decreased citywide, they did so at a slower rate compared to the state average until recent years.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, exhibited a different pattern. It increased from 430 incidents in 2010 to a high of 704 in 2015, before decreasing to 407 in 2022, a 5.3% decrease over the entire period. The rate per 1,000 people actually decreased slightly from 18.89 in 2010 to 15.81 in 2022, indicating that population growth outpaced the increase in larceny-theft. The city's share of state larceny-theft rose from 0.43% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2022, suggesting that despite the overall decrease, larceny-theft in the city became a slightly larger portion of the state's total.
Motor vehicle theft in the area remained relatively stable, with 35 incidents in 2010 and 18 in 2022, a 48.6% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.54 in 2010 to 0.70 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.3% in 2010, peaking at 0.87% in 2019, and then declining to 0.19% in 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft decreased in the city, it did so more rapidly than the state average in recent years.
Arson cases in the city have been relatively rare, with only 1 or 2 incidents reported in most years. The rate per 1,000 people remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.08. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated between 0% and 0.76%, with no clear trend, likely due to the small number of incidents.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $46,016 in 2013 to $50,702 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 1,057 to 467. Additionally, the racial composition of the city showed some correlation with crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 61% in 2013 to 56% in 2022, and the black population increased from 34% to 37%, property crime rates generally declined, suggesting that demographic shifts may have influenced crime patterns.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates are likely to continue their downward trajectory. Burglaries could potentially decrease to around 20-25 incidents per year, larceny-theft might stabilize around 350-375 cases annually, and motor vehicle theft could drop to 10-15 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain rare, with 0-2 incidents annually.
In summary, Monroe has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The most notable improvements were in burglary rates, while larceny-theft remained the most prevalent property crime. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and changing demographics, paint a picture of a city that has made substantial progress in combating property crime. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for the ongoing safety and well-being of its residents.
