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Property Crime Trends in Pine Hill, Alabama: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Pine Hill, Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 72.22% from 36 in 2010 to 10 in 2022. During this same period, the population declined by 44.5%, from 2,209 in 2010 to 1,226 in 2022, suggesting a complex relationship between demographic changes and crime rates.
Burglary rates in the city showed significant volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 6 burglaries, which increased to 13 in 2017, representing a 116.67% increase. However, by 2022, burglaries had decreased to 2, a 66.67% reduction from 2010 levels. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 2.72 in 2010 to 7.27 in 2017, before decreasing to 1.63 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.07% in 2017 before settling at 0.02% in 2022, indicating a relative improvement in the city's burglary situation compared to the state.
Larceny-theft trends showed a general decline over the study period. From 27 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 7 in 2022, a 74.07% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 12.22 in 2010 to 5.71 in 2022, despite the population decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.04%, suggesting that the local trend generally mirrored state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city exhibited notable fluctuations. From 3 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 6 in 2018, before decreasing to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.36 in 2010 to 3.54 in 2018, then fell to 0.82 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied significantly, reaching a high of 0.07% in 2016 and 2018, before dropping to 0.01% in 2022, indicating a substantial improvement relative to state trends.
Arson data for Pine Hill was largely unavailable until 2022, when 1 incident was reported, representing 0.19% of state arsons. This single incident translates to a rate of 0.82 per 1,000 residents, providing a baseline for future comparisons but insufficient for trend analysis.
Examining correlations, a strong inverse relationship is observed between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $35,244 in 2013 to $50,397 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 15 to 10. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between property crime rates and racial distribution. As the white population percentage increased from 47% in 2020 to 54% in 2022, property crimes decreased from 36 in 2016 to 10 in 2022, suggesting potential socioeconomic factors at play.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's forecasted that by 2029 (five years from now), Pine Hill may see a further reduction in property crimes to approximately 7 incidents annually. This projection assumes continued improvements in economic conditions and stability in demographic trends.
In summary, Pine Hill has experienced a significant overall decrease in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite fluctuations in specific crime categories. The declining population coupled with rising median incomes appears to have contributed to this positive trend. While the city's share of state crime rates has generally decreased, continued monitoring and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial to maintain and improve upon these trends in the coming years.
