Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 21 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 32 by 2022, a 52.4% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 1.27 in 2010 to 2.12 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased significantly from 0.35% in 2010 to 0.48% in 2022, indicating that this crime became more prevalent in the city relative to the state.

Arson data for the city is largely unavailable, with only two data points: zero arsons reported in both 2011 and 2022. This lack of data makes it impossible to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 757 per square mile in 2010 to 691 in 2022, property crimes per capita increased, suggesting that lower density may not have led to reduced crime rates. The median income showed volatility, rising from $38,512 in 2013 to $43,701 in 2021, before dropping to $38,819 in 2022. This income instability coincided with fluctuations in property crime rates, potentially indicating a complex relationship between economic conditions and criminal activity.

The racial composition of the city saw notable changes, with the Black population increasing from 41% in 2013 to 48% in 2022, while the White population decreased from 52% to 45% over the same period. This demographic shift occurred alongside the overall increase in property crimes, though a direct causal relationship cannot be inferred without further analysis.

Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that property crime rates may continue to rise moderately over the next five years (up to 2029). Larceny-theft is likely to remain the predominant property crime, potentially reaching around 300 incidents annually. Burglaries may stabilize or slightly decrease, while motor vehicle thefts could continue their upward trend, possibly reaching 40-45 incidents per year.

In summary, Atmore has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape from 2010 to 2022. Despite a declining population, the city has seen increases in overall property crime rates, particularly in larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft. The city's share of state crime has grown across all categories, indicating a concentration of property crime issues relative to Alabama as a whole. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts and economic fluctuations, present ongoing challenges for local law enforcement and community leaders in addressing and mitigating property crime in the coming years.