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Property Crime Trends in Pilot Knob, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuation and Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Pilot Knob, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a peak of 11 incidents in 2019 and a low of 2 incidents in 2013. Over this period, the population grew from 1,107 in 2011 to 1,386 in 2022, representing a 25.2% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have shown notable variations. In 2012, there were 2 burglaries, which decreased to 1 in 2013 and 2014. The rate spiked to 3 in 2015 and 2019, before dropping back to 1 in 2020 and 2022. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.65 in 2012 to 0.72 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary figures remained relatively constant, hovering around 0.01% throughout the period, with a slight increase to 0.02% in 2019.
Larceny theft patterns have been equally dynamic. From 2 incidents in 2012 and 2013, the number rose to 6 in 2015, peaked at 9 in 2018, and then decreased to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 1.65 in 2012 to a high of 7.49 in 2018, before settling at 1.44 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny theft remained consistently low at 0.01% or less throughout the period.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been rare, with only two recorded incidents: 1 in 2016 and 1 in 2019. This translates to rates of 0.93 and 0.74 per 1,000 people in those years, respectively. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft figures was minimal, at 0.01% in both instances.
Arson cases have been equally infrequent, with only two recorded incidents: 1 in 2016 and 1 in 2019. These cases represented 0.12% and 0.17% of state arson incidents in those years, respectively. The arson rate per 1,000 people was 0.93 in 2016 and 0.74 in 2019.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate positive correlation between population density and property crime rates. For instance, as the population density increased from 1,201 per square mile in 2016 to 1,519 in 2019, property crimes rose from 10 to 11 incidents. Additionally, there seems to be a slight negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $33,681 in 2016 to $38,624 in 2019, property crimes increased marginally from 10 to 11, but then decreased to 6 in 2020 as income continued to rise to $42,255.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. This prediction is based on the recent downward trend observed from 2019 to 2022, coupled with the continued increase in median income and relatively stable population growth.
In conclusion, Pilot Knob has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, with recent years showing a trend towards lower crime numbers. The city's contribution to state crime figures remains minimal across all categories. While population growth and density have shown some correlation with crime rates, the rising median income may be a mitigating factor. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in sustaining and potentially improving these positive trends.
