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Property Crime Trends in Perry, Michigan: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Perry, located in Michigan, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 16 in 2010 and ending at 20 in 2022, representing a 25% increase. During this same period, the population experienced modest growth, from 3,494 in 2010 to 3,476 in 2022, a slight decrease of 0.5%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant variability over the years. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries reported, which increased to 9 in 2013, representing a peak in the data set. However, by 2022, burglaries had decreased to just 1 incident. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 2.83 in 2013 and dropped to 0.29 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide burglary figures has remained relatively low, fluctuating between 0% and 0.04% of the state's total.
Larceny-theft has been the most prevalent property crime in the city. In 2010, there were 14 reported cases, which increased to 19 in 2022, a 35.7% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 4.01 in 2010 to 5.47 in 2022. The city's share of state-wide larceny-theft incidents has remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.01% to 0.03% over the years, indicating that the local trend generally aligns with state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low throughout the observed period. There were no reported cases in 2010, and this remained consistent in several years. The highest number of motor vehicle thefts was recorded in 2018 with 3 incidents, translating to a rate of 0.99 per 1,000 residents. By 2022, there were no reported motor vehicle thefts. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle theft has been minimal, never exceeding 0.02% of the state's total.
Arson cases have been rare in the city, with no reported incidents for most years. However, in 2022, there was 1 reported case of arson, marking a significant change. This single incident represented 0.1% of the state's total arson cases for that year, a notably high percentage given the city's size.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate positive correlation between the city's population density and overall property crime rates. For instance, as the population density increased from 1,207 per square mile in 2018 to 1,381 in 2022, property crimes also rose from 21 to 20 incidents respectively.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the slight upward trend in overall property crimes. Based on historical data and current trajectories, we might expect to see total property crimes reach approximately 22-25 incidents annually by 2029. Larceny-theft is likely to remain the dominant form of property crime, potentially accounting for 80-85% of all incidents.
In summary, Perry has experienced fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, with an overall increase of 25% from 2010 to 2022. Larceny-theft remains the most significant concern, while burglary and motor vehicle theft have shown decreasing trends. The emergence of an arson case in 2022 warrants attention, although it may be an isolated incident. The city's property crime trends generally align with state-wide patterns, suggesting that local factors are not significantly diverging from broader regional influences.
