Motor vehicle theft in Parrish has fluctuated over the years, showing a significant overall decrease. The number of incidents dropped from 10 in 2017 to just 1 in 2022, with the rate per 1,000 people decreasing from 3.58 to 0.37. The town's share of state motor vehicle thefts also decreased substantially from 0.13% to 0.01%, indicating a significant improvement relative to state trends.

Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincides with a slight decrease in population density from 1,334 to 1,300 people per square mile. During this period, the median income fluctuated, reaching a high of $45,552 in 2016 before settling at $41,996 in 2022. The percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, ranging from 80% to 87% between 2013 and 2022.

A notable demographic shift occurred during this period, with the Black population increasing from 6% in 2017 to 18% in 2022, while the White population decreased from 86% to 79%. This significant change in racial composition coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting a potential relationship between demographic shifts and crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on observed trends, burglary rates may stabilize or slightly decrease, larceny theft may continue its downward trend, and motor vehicle theft may remain at low levels. However, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously, as local factors and interventions can significantly influence crime rates in small communities.

In summary, Parrish has experienced a general decrease in property crimes from 2017 to 2022, with variations across different crime categories. The most significant improvements have been in motor vehicle theft, while burglary rates have shown more volatility. These trends have occurred against a backdrop of demographic changes, including a slight population decrease, shifts in racial composition, and fluctuations in median income. The town's changing share of state crime rates across categories suggests that local factors are influencing crime trends differently than statewide patterns. As the community continues to evolve, ongoing monitoring and targeted interventions may help maintain and improve upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.