Robbery has been consistently absent from Margaret's crime statistics. From 2010 to 2022, there were no reported robberies in any year. This absence of robbery cases suggests that the city has maintained a relatively safe environment in terms of property-related violent crimes.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Margaret. The number of aggravated assaults has fluctuated over the years, with a peak of 8 incidents in 2018, representing 0.07% of the state's total. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 residents reached its highest point at 1.70 in 2018. In 2022, there were 3 aggravated assaults reported, resulting in a rate of 0.56 per 1,000 residents. Despite some fluctuations, the overall trend shows a decrease in aggravated assaults relative to the growing population.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, there appears to be a relationship between the city's changing racial demographics and violent crime rates. As the percentage of white residents decreased from 84% in 2013 to 71% in 2021, and the percentage of black residents increased from 13% to 23% during the same period, there was a slight increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. However, it's important to note that this correlation does not imply causation, and other socioeconomic factors may play a role in these trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it's anticipated that Margaret will likely maintain its low overall violent crime rate. The absence of robberies is expected to continue, while murder rates are projected to remain very low, with the possibility of occasional isolated incidents. Rape cases are predicted to remain infrequent, potentially occurring once every few years. Aggravated assaults are expected to fluctuate between 3 to 6 incidents annually, depending on population growth and other socioeconomic factors.

In summary, Margaret has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate despite significant population growth. The city's most pressing violent crime concern remains aggravated assaults, though even these occur at a relatively low rate. The absence of robberies and the infrequency of murders and rapes contribute to a generally safe community environment. As the city continues to grow and diversify, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and quality of life for its residents.