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Property Crime Trends in Paris, Arkansas: A Decade of Fluctuation Amidst Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Paris, Arkansas, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, peaking at 238 in 2013 and reaching its lowest point of 81 in 2022, marking a 29.57% decrease over this period. Interestingly, this decline in property crime occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing by 7.15% from 4,223 in 2010 to 3,921 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 51 reported burglaries, which peaked at 112 in 2013 before decreasing to 34 in 2022, representing a 33.33% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents actually increased slightly from 12.08 in 2010 to 8.67 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.23% in 2010 to a high of 0.58% in 2013, before settling at 0.33% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, they remain a persistent issue relative to the city's shrinking population.
Larceny-theft incidents have also experienced a downward trend. From 60 cases in 2010, the number peaked at 114 in 2013 before declining to 39 in 2022, a 35% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 14.21 in 2010 to 9.95 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained relatively stable, starting at 0.12% in 2010 and ending at 0.09% in 2022. This indicates a general improvement in larceny-theft rates, both in absolute numbers and relative to the state.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. Starting with 4 incidents in 2010, the number peaked at 14 in 2021 before decreasing to 8 in 2022, representing a 100% increase over the period. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.95 in 2010 to 2.04 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, from 0.10% in 2010 to 0.15% in 2022, with a peak of 0.34% in 2013. This suggests that motor vehicle theft has become a growing concern in the city, especially when considering the declining population.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and relatively low in number. The city reported 2 cases in 2010, with intermittent years of no reported cases. The last reported case was in 2019. The city's contribution to state arson figures has fluctuated widely, from 0.54% in 2010 to 0.37% in 2019, with several years of no reported cases in between. Given the low and inconsistent numbers, it's challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $30,624 in 2013 to $38,154 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 238 to 81 during the same period. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see a further reduction in overall property crimes to approximately 70 incidents annually. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 30 cases per year, while larceny-theft might decrease to about 35 cases annually. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to remain relatively stable at around 8-10 cases per year.
In summary, Paris has experienced a general downward trend in property crimes over the past decade, with notable decreases in burglaries and larceny-theft. However, motor vehicle thefts have shown an increasing trend relative to the city's population. The correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates suggests that economic factors play a role in the city's crime dynamics. As the city continues to navigate demographic and economic changes, maintaining focus on crime prevention strategies, particularly for motor vehicle thefts, will be crucial for sustaining and improving public safety.
